Over the last several months, NDHFA has been working in partnership with NDSU’s Center for Social Research on an update to the Statewide Housing Needs Assessment which was released in 2022. The focus of this updated study is to examine the ongoing shifts in the state’s housing landscape, shedding light on key factors that influence housing dynamics, such as population growth, income levels, demographic changes, and affordability issues.
North Dakota saw unprecedented population growth, driven in part by the booming energy industry, which reversed years of population decline. This growth created a younger, more dynamic workforce, with many people aged 25 to 44 moving to the state for employment opportunities. However, as the oil and gas industry matured, the rate of population growth slowed. North Dakota’s population is projected to show moderate growth continuing through 2027.
Housing affordability remains a critical issue. Despite increases in disposable income, moderate-income households are still facing housing challenges. Nearly half of all households in North Dakota earn less than $75,000 annually, with 33% earning less than $50,000. For these households, housing costs—whether renting or owning—are rising faster than incomes. In fact, rents grew by 50% from 2012 to 2022, and the percentage of renters who are cost-burdened (spending more than 30% of their income on housing) has increased significantly.
The projected growth of lower and moderate-income households in North Dakota, coupled with a shortage of smaller entry-level homes, highlights the significant gap in housing availability. Additionally, the increasing rental rates place a heavy burden on low- to moderate-income households, which can limit their ability to save for homeownership.
North Dakota is the fourth youngest state and over the next two decades will have a large population of first-time and move-up homebuyers. While this is a great position to be in, the report also highlighted that the state’s homeowner vacancy rate is slightly below the Federal Reserve’s ideal rate, which points to a low supply of homes for sale, underscoring the need for more affordable housing.
North Dakota’s low housing supply is partly due to the number older adults choosing to age in place. One key demographic shift happening in our state is the aging of the baby boomer generation. By 2027, the state will experience an increase in its older population, particularly those aged 65 and over. This trend is expected to place significant demand for housing and services that cater to older adults.
Looking ahead, North Dakota will need to add approximately 20,000 single-family and multifamily housing units by 2027 to help meet the needs of North Dakota residents, especially those who are aging and lower-income, working households.
This updated study aims to inform leaders statewide of the hurdles many in our state face in finding housing. Building additional units, working to rehabilitate older units, continuing to provide programs for affordable housing, and advocating for housing policies are ways NDHFA is supporting our mission to ensure that housing is suitable and available for all North Dakotans.
If you’d like to read more, the study is available on our website at https://www.ndhfa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/SHNA2024_Final.pdf